House Oversight — Estate records
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025242
Microsoft Word - 04-09-2012 - EOTM - The Day of the Triffids
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April 9, 2012 Q&A on the USA, with a watchful eye on the risk of giant man-eating plants; Spain Our view for 2012 was that economic and equity market conditions in the US and Asia ex-Japan would be better than in Europe. So far, that view is on track. Spain in particular is in difficult shape (see page 5); its banks and government may have to borrow 1.5 trillion Euros over the next 12 months while in recession. Both the ECB and EU will need to keep the spigot open to prevent Spain from becoming a bigger problem. This week, some Q&A on the US recovery, flows into bonds and stocks, profits and P/E multiples, municipal bonds, and the long-term US fiscal situation. The Fed appears to be saying that no additional monetary easing is needed unless the economy worsens further. Are there any signs that the US recovery is becoming self-reinforcing? Durable goods consumption, equipment & software spending, vehicle sales, bank loans to companies, manufacturing payrolls (even after Friday’s disappointing report) and housing stats (building permits, multifamily housing starts) have improved over the last few months. While delinquency rates are in better shape (credit card delinquencies are back to 2007 levels), household credit growth is still weak. However, homebuilders are seeing stronger demand, and nationwide remodeling continues to rise. We see opportunities in retailing and building products companies that may benefit from a continuation in these trends. Publicly-held builders reporting stronger demand Percentchange, YoY in latest fiscal quarter 40% New Backlog 30% Orders of Orders Residential remodeling index Number of homes, millions, 3-month moving average 3.3 3.1 20% 10% 0% 2.9 2.7 2.5 -10% Lennar KB Home Toll Hovnanian DR Horton NVR Pultegroup Source: Corporate Reports. Empirical Research Partners. 2.3 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Source: BuildFax. Empirical Research Partners. Has the data really been that good? I heard better US economic data has a lot to do with th […]