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05/12/2014 the Cathedral – to Shlomo Gazit
• As the year 2015 begins, we
find ourselves at the height of a
historic earthquake, in multiple
dimensions, the like of which hasn’t
been seen since the end of WWI and
the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.
• In the Middle East – within
three years, the "Arab spring" turned
into the "Islamic winter" – borders
have vanished and centuries of
conflicts between tribes and factions
are erupting onto the surface.
• The bi-polar and multi-polar
world we knew has been replaced by a
world with not even one geopolitical
center of gravity. It is a Gestalt in
which everything depends on
everything else, and dealing with the
challenges requires global cooperation
.
• Israel finds itself at the center
of a kind of "perfect storm,"the only
outpost of the western way of life in
the Middle East – at the meeting point
of the "clash of civilizations" between
Islam and the West, as Huntington
envisioned it, and at the same time, in
the spinning "eye of the storm" of the
clash of titans within Islam itself:
between Sunni and Shi'ite, between
tradition, extremism and terrorism on
the one hand, and modernity and
moderation on the other; between the
dream of "past glory" and the vision of
a "leap into the future”. And all of this
is drenched in a lot of blood.
• This drama that has washed
over the Arab world bears two lessons
and one insight for us:
The 1 st lesson: "Be modest in
prophecy". In particular, when it comes
to the future. Mubarak for example had
about 400,000 people at his disposal
working in various security agencies in
order to preemptively predict events
such as those that took place at Tahrir
Square. And he did not foresee the
uprising. So who can?
The 2 nd lesson: When friends, and even
the leaders among us, say: "Don't get
swept into a panic – if something really
grave happens (Iran for example) – the
US will not stand by. The world will
take action!"
And I say: Don't bet on it. Look at Syria.
Assad has massacred 200,000 of his ow

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