House Oversight — Estate records
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026909
The Unsteady Undertow Commands the Seas (Temporarily)
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Sunday Night Insight October 14, 2018 The Unsteady Undertow Commands the Seas (Temporarily) Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani Brett Nelson Maziar Minovi Andrew Dubinsky Michael Murdoch Mary Rich Chief Investment Officer Head of Tactical Asset Allocation Managing Director Vice President Vice President Vice President The 7.8% intraday peak-to-trough decline in US equities between September 21st and October 11th has rattled investor confidence. Numerous headlines of stock market “carnage” have further eroded their confidence. As a result, some of our clients have asked whether this drop signifies the beginning of the end of a nearly 10-year bull market. We do not think so. So far, this pullback is actually smaller than the two prior downdrafts we experienced in late January and in mid-March, neither of which derailed the US economy nor the bull market. The steady factors we highlighted in our annual Outlook—such as economic growth, benign inflation, robust earnings, and low probability of recession—have not dissipated. Furthermore, while the investor focus has shifted to the risks around the unsteady undertow, most of these factors are, on balance, less concerning today than they were at the beginning of 2018. Of course, that is not the case across all geopolitical concerns. While trade tensions with Mexico and 1 Canada have abated, those with China have certainly deteriorated and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. But, in aggregate, there has been more improvement than deterioration, in our view. In this Sunday Night Insight, we will provide a brief update on the steady factors and unsteady undertow. We then conclude with our view that the steady factors will likely continue to win this tug-ofwar between the two. Steady Factors While the headlines warn of equity market carnage, the facts do not support such alarming headlines. The S&P 500 is still up 5.1% on a year-to-date total return basis and financial conditions remain at easier levels today than they did […]