House Oversight — Estate records
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The Scowcroft Group 900 17th Street, NW • Suite 500 Washington DC 20006 Phone www.scowcroft.com From: Kevin Neater Date: November 14, 2015 Terrorism - Metrojet and Paris Mark Externalization of ISIS Threat It has been a consensus view in the US and Europe that the dangers posed by ISIS included metastasizing into other Middle Eastern and African countries -- something that Turkey has already experienced and Saudi Arabia and others likely face. Europe was believed to be at less risk, although as the flow of refugees from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan increased, that risk has risen. The US and everywhere else were thought to be tertiary targets, subject to opportunistic attacks but almost a distraction to ISIS (cf. Al Qaeda), given its preoccupation with exploitation of Sunni/Shia divisions and goal of regional territorial gains. Remember, ISIS' military leadership largely is drawn from Sunnis who were a part of Saddam's military; they are motivated by revenge for how they have been treated by the Shia-dominated post- Saddam Iraqi government.) Last week's Metrojet bombing in Egypt, the suicide attacks Thursday in a Shiite neighborhood of Beirut, and yesterday atrocities in Paris all demonstrate an unexpected level of sophistication and effort. As a result, European countries and the US are likely to see an increase in incidents and threats that harken back to Al Qaeda's early agenda or are comparable to the Black September and early Hezbollah attacks of the '70s. What are the consequences? • ISIS can be expected to undertake further spectacular attacks. It has eclipsed AQ in operational capability, financing, and recruitment. It is not only the wealthiest terror group in history, but one with global reach and ambitions. (The Obama Administration's claims that ISIS is contained now look naive, and that characterization will haunt President Obama and Democrats next year.) • Expect a significant uptick in ELI, US, and Russian engagement against […]