House Oversight — Estate records
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026794
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Deutsche Bank Global Public Affairs Global Political and Regulatory Risk in 2015 and 2016: What to Watch November 4, 2015 Francis J. Kelly Managing Director & Global Coordinator, Public Affairs 11/10/2015 2010 DB Blue template “There cannot be a crisis next week. My schedule is already full.” - Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger “Any idiot can face a crisis. It’s day to day living that wears you out.” - Anton Chekhov “Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.” - J. Paul Getty, US businessman Deutsche Bank Global Public Affairs Francis J. Kelly francis.j.kelly@db.com 1 11/10/2015 2010 DB Blue template The world is moving rapidly from the model we have lived within for 25 years. The where, why and what… LONG TERM OUTLOOK: - Geopolitical events are increasingly pressuring global markets and will continue to do so for the remainder of 2015 and well into 2016. - Middle East serves as locus for key uncertainty and chaos. We continue to believe the region is at risk of remaining in turmoil for 30+ years . - We continue to see NAFTA nations as being seen as economic and political “safe havens” in large part to “Energy Renaissance.” - China is going through intense political, economic and societal transformation – all of which could potentially overwhelm the chances of a successful outcome. SHORT TERM (3-10 month) OUTLOOK: - In the coming three to six months, three key events will likely happen and have a long term positive impact on markets: ‣ Approval and implementation of Iran nuclear negotiations ‣ Congressional approval of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) ‣ US will approve repeal ban on export of crude oil/natural gas Deutsche Bank Global Public Affairs Francis J. Kelly francis.j.kelly@db.com 2 11/10/2015 2010 DB Blue template The US: Washington’s 2015-2016 agenda - what to expect and why it will be important • Despite the contrary and dramatic press accounts, Washington has been getting things done, a positive for the political process and the n […]