House Oversight — Estate records
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LAFFER ASSOCIATES Supply-Side Investment Research May 19, 2016 10-yr T-Note: 1.86% DJIA: 17,526.62 NASDAQ: 4,739.12 S&P 500: 2,047.63 S&P 500 Undervalued: 151.8% GAME ON [Updated 7/6/2016] By Arthur B. Laffer, Ph.D. Summary To save you the agony of plodding through this fascinating, information-rich paper, I’ll get straight to the point: Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States after having won an easy victory over Hillary Clinton in November 2016. The reasons: I.) II.) III.) Section one shows that the essential characteristics of the narrative for the Trump campaign and the Reagan campaign of 1980 are surprisingly similar, which would point to a Trump landslide. Section two describes the poor state of the current economy using detrended GDP per adult, the ratio of employmentto-adult-population and new home sales per 1,000 adults and how these measures strongly indicate a Republican victory. Using historical data for the Gallup poll question “are you satisfied” and presidential election dates, this section would point to an overwhelming Republican win in November 2016. IV.) Relying on voter turnout data this year versus earlier years and party selection, the Republicans have a large advantage coming into the Fall election. V.) Basing our forecast on the past eight years of Congressional elections—House and Senate—as well as state elections of house, senate and governors, the Republicans should be exceedingly confident about the upcoming presidential election. VI.) Taking careful measure of what both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have done in the public eye, Trump has the issues on his side. I. 1979-1980 How the Reagan Revolution Began In early 1979, a group of Ronald Reagan acolytes—some 10 to 15 in total—got together in Justin Dart’s office at Rexall (the corner of La Cienega and Beverly) and there they formed the original Reagan Executive Advisory Committee. With very few exceptions (initially only me), this group had been called Reagan’s K […]