House Oversight — Estate records
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From: Ens, Amanda Sent: 4/7/2017 12:24:59 PM To: jeffrey E. [jeeyacation@gmail.com]; Richard Kahn Subject: EU BANKS: BIG EQUITY OUTFLOWS BUT REMAIN UPBEAT ON REFLATION TRADE: SALES TOP PICKS = SOC GEN, INTESA, NORDEA Attachments: image001.gif; image001jpg01D2AF7627BB3E30.jpg; image012png01D2AF7627BB3E30.png; image014jpg01D2AF762A2ADEAO.jpg; image015jpg01D2AF762A2ADEAO.jpg; image016jpg01D2AF762A2ADEAO.jpg; image017jpg01D2AF762A2ADEAO.jpg; image018jpg01D2AF762A2ADEAO.jpg Importance: High We remain positive on banks that can make acceptable returns in the current environment and are geared into the upside when rates begin to recover... ING, KBC, Intesa, Unicredit, SocGen, Erste, BKIR are all Buy rated. Global Equities Specialist Sales - European Financials MAR disclosure EU BANKS: BIG EQUITY OUTFLOWS BUT REMAIN UPBEAT ON REFLATION TRADE Spec Sales Comment: Big Equity outflows but we see this is a pause not a reversal BofAML latest flow show data this morning shows the largest equity outflows in 40 weeks and first outflows YTD (click here). Our BofAML Bull & Bear Indicator is now at 7.1, the highest level since Jul'14 and not far from "sell" signal. So is this just a pause for breath in the reflation trade? BofAML strategists think so. In our updated thoughts this morning we think reflation is real so stay long equities, short rates, selectively long USD (click here). Chart 12: BofAML B&B Indicator (scale from 0 to 10) 13mdt Feb.16 lows Today 10 Extreme Extreme Bearish Bullish Source BotA Merniloynch Global Investment Strategy Why do we remain bullish the reflation trade? The main reasons for equity investor concern in recent weeks = the gap between hard and soft data, plus the delay in the Trump fiscal package HOUSE OVERSIGHT 014860 Chart 1: The gap between hard and soft data is a concern to investors Chart 2: Mediocre US Q1 data partly down to seasonal adjustments Residual seasonality in GDP growth from 1985 to 2015 25 2 08 15 […]