House Oversight — Estate records
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_010609
Liquid Insight
- Pages
- 8
- Text
- Searchable
Text as released
Machine-read from the scan. Names, dates and numbers can be misread — check anything you rely on against the original page.
Liquid Insight Trump’s effect on MXN 22 September 2016 Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for amanda.ens@baml.com Key takeaways • We provide an empirical analysis of Donald Trump's potential effects on the Mexican peso • Our analysis suggests the exchange rate is perhaps as much as 15% undervalued • We remain neutral for now given US election risks are likely to remain high in the near term By Claudio Irigoyen and Ezequiel Aguirre Chart of the day: MXN may be as much as 15% undervalued Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg Trump’s effect on MXN We provide an empirical analysis of Donald Trump’s effects on the Mexican peso. Our analysis suggests the exchange rate is perhaps as much as 15% undervalued. In our view, buying the Mexican peso likely would prove a profitable strategy if Hillary Clinton wins. However, we remain neutral for now given US election risks are likely to remain high in the near term. A model of MXN weekly returns including Trump We estimate a model of MXN returns with standard financial fundamentals that also includes Donald Trump’s RealClearPolitics polling average in the US presidential election. It is generally accepted now that Trump’s chances in the US election have been a major driver of the Mexican peso (Chart 1). Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in FX markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 6 to 7. Analyst Certification on […]